Aurora, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

243
FXUS65 KBOU 022044
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
244 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread and locally heavy rainfall still expected tonight,
  with heaviest rain focusing near the foothills and Palmer
  Divide.

- A couple strong/severe storms still possible northeast plains
  into early this evening.

- Snowmelt plus rainfall will lead to high flows on some mountain
  streams.

- Cool Tuesday with a decrease of showers. Then gradual warming
  trend into later this week, but a round of scattered showers and
  storms most days.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

A fairly expansive deck of mid/high clouds continues to spread
across the forecast area this afternoon. This had reduced solar
insolation and destabilization, as evidenced by the local ACARS
soundings and SPC surface analysis showing CIN greater than 50
J/kg over all of the plains as of 20Z. Mountain areas, being an
elevated heat source and weaker inversions, have essentially
reached convective temperature despite the cloud cover and we`ve
seen a few showers/storms develop. Also, we`ve just recently seen
stronger storms fire in southeast Wyoming, where CIN was eroding
quicker due to earlier sunshine. These will become more widespread
through the late afternoon/early evening, and should eventually
spill onto the plains of northeast Colorado. While the cloud cover
somewhat dampens the threat of severe weather over the northeast
plains, there is still forcing from an approaching cold front and
existing storms from the north which will aid in breaking the cap.
MLCAPE is growing to 1000-1500 J/kg over the northeast plains.
Thus, we could still certainly see a couple strong/severe storms
out there early this evening.

The cold front will also be responsible for widespread shower/
isolated storm development over the rest of the plains and Front
Range later this evening. Within an hour or two of the front`s
passage, sufficient upslope in a neutral/slightly unstable airmass
and synoptic scale lift will all join forces. That means
widespread showers and even a few embedded thunderstorms. Locally
heavy rain could occur in/near the foothills of Jefferson County,
western Denver suburbs, and down across the Palmer Divide area
where best upslope focus occurs. More in the hydro discussion
below.

For Tuesday, we still expect most precipitation to be shifting
off to the south/east as the dominant northern U.S. trough
continues to push southeast, and rather rapid stabilization
occurs behind it. Forecast soundings show it will be difficult to
regenerate any convection with daytime heating as it will be
limited by low level stratus and a deep, cool boundary layer. The
main chance of afternoon convective showers/isolated storms would
be over the high country.

Wednesday will likely warm a little, and there`s another
disturbance well advertised to approach from the west/southwest.
Thus, we think shower/storm coverage and intensity will pick up.
While MLCAPE should stay under 1000 J/kg, the shear profile will
be favorable for more organized storm development. Therefore,
despite somewhat limited MLCAPE we wouldn`t be surprised for a
couple strong/severe storms, with the greatest odds over the
Palmer Divide onto the adjacent east central plains.

Thursday and Friday are expected to remain rather unstable with a
round of at least scattered showers and storms each afternoon and
evening. MLCAPE remains on the modest side during this period,
but it`s early June so certainly any of these days could see a
threat of a couple severe storms.

There are signs for less storm coverage and temperatures warming
to near normal levels by the weekend. That said, we`ll likely be
in northwest flow aloft which means embedded shortwaves and a few
stronger/severe storms will still be possible should sufficient
instability build.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Main concern in the short term is initial convective development,
which is being delayed or even weakened by rather expansive deck
of mid/high clouds. There are some breaks, and further moisture
advection so eventually we should develop some high based
convection in the vicinity of the TAF sites. Highest probability
is shifting to 23Z-02Z, but even then no more than a Prob30 -TSRA.
Probability of gusty/vrb winds to 30-35 kts is a little higher, as
there will also be some high based showers around. However,
boundary layer may never fully mix to allow for higher confidence
of gusty winds.

Outside of that, the main weather with more widespread showers
will develop behind this evening`s frontal passage. Most likely
arrival time is near 02Z, with a period of gusty N/NNE winds to
25+ kts. Cloud decks will lower to MVFR/IFR with rain showers
filling in 03Z-05Z and becoming heavier. Some visibility
restriction expected down to 3-5SM in rain and light fog, with a
low threat (20% chance) of lower ceilings and LIFR Visibility.
Rain is still expected to end 13Z-14Z with a gradual improvement
and lifting of the stratus deck through the day, but IMC
persisting.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Continued snowmelt and modest rainfall will be enough to cause
additional rises on streams in the mountains, as well as some of
our Front Range streams. At this time, only the upper Colorado
River above Grand Lake is under enough threat of rises to warrant
an Advisory.

The main threat of flooding along and east of the Front Range
would be more localized and "flashier", given storms will still be
capable of producing heavy rain, but the total amounts remain
relatively consistent. Any risk of flash flooding would be from
1) an isolated strong storm moving over a burn scar this
afternoon/early evening, or 2) stronger storms merging or
training on the northeast plains into mid evening. Even after the
cold front, warm cloud depths are near 6,000 feet for a few hours
which is pretty impressive. As a result, locally heavy rain, even
in the shallow convection, is likely into the late evening hours.
We also think the highest probability of that would be in/near
the foothills of Jefferson County, western suburbs, and down
across the Palmer Divide area where best upslope focus occurs.
Thus, some rises can also be anticipated on local streams
including Bear Creek, Plum Creek, and Cherry Creek. However, at
this time we do not see a high probability of anything greater
than nuisance/minor low land flooding. Still something to watch
trough late this evening into the early morning hours where local
totals of 1-2" will be possible.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
HYDROLOGY...Barjenbruch